Industrial robots are an important starting point for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. High-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials with high reliability and stability are the core materials for building industrial robot servo systems. With the rapid development of the robot industry, the rare earth permanent magnet industry is expected to usher a new growth no less than that of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the acceleration of the industrialization of humanoid robots may further increase the demand for high-performance NdFeB.
According to OFweek data, in 2020, servo motors, precision reducers and controllers will account for 25%, 35%, and 10% of the cost side, respectively, with servo motors ranking second. With the rapid development of the industrial robot industry, the demand for high-performance NdFeB is expected to speed up.
The entry of Tesla is expected to accelerate the development of the humanoid robot industry chain. It is expected that the high-performance NdFeB humanoid robot will consume 4kg/unit. Assuming that the output will reach 5 million units in 2025, it is expected to drive over 20,000 tons of high-performance NdFeB demand.
The energy revolution pushes high-performance NdFeB into a new stage, and intelligence is expected to bring high-performance NdFeB to a new height: In 2020, four categories of new energy vehicles, wind power, inverter air conditioners, and energy-saving elevators account for 64% of high-performance NdFeB consumption, and these four types of demand accounted for only 39% in 2018, the proportion has increased significantly. Due to its performance advantages, high-performance NdFeB cannot be replaced in the fields of new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection. The dual-carbon policy is expected to further accelerate its application expansion. The energy revolution will drive the global total demand for high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials to increase from 74,000 tons in 2020 to 226,000 tons in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%.
Musk said a prototype of the humanoid robot TeslaBot "Optimus" will appear at AIDay on September 30 this year. Humanoid robots can theoretically be widely used in personal households, special operations, catering, public services and industries, and have a very broad development space. It is estimated that the demand for high-performance NdFeB for 10 million humanoid robots will reach 20,000-40,000 tons, which is equivalent to 20-40% of the total global demand for high-performance NdFeB in 2021.
In 2025, the market size of high-performance NdFeB in the global robot industry may exceed 30 billion rmb under the current rare earth price, we assume that the price of high-performance NdFeB for robot servo motors is 500,000 rmb/ton. The demand for high-performance NdFeB in the industry is 61,000 tons. In 2025, the global market for high-performance NdFeB in robotics will be 30.5 billion rmb. With the rapid development of the robot industry, the rare earth permanent magnet industry is expected to usher a new growth no less than that of new energy vehicles.