China's Rare Earth Prices Climb Again: Heavy Rare Earths Lead as Supply Concerns Persist

Highlights

China's Rare Earth Price Index reached 261.9, roughly 2.6 times the 2010 baseline, remaining elevated after 2026 export-control disruptions.

Heavy rare earths including terbium oxide, gadolinium oxide, holmium oxide, and yttrium oxide all posted price increases while light rare earths held steady.

Terbium and dysprosium supply remains critically concentrated in China despite years of investment announcements in Western alternative sources.

China's rare earth market operates as a hybrid system shaped by production quotas, export licensing, and national industrial policy rather than free-market forces.

Western nations face a growing challenge: not just producing rare earths, but securing the specific heavy rare earths needed for magnets, EVs, and defense systems.

China's Rare Earth Price Index rose to 261.9 on June 23, 2026, continuing a broader upward trend that began in mid-2025 and accelerated sharply following export controls and supply-chain disruptions. While light rare earths such as cerium and lanthanum remained largely stable, several strategic heavy rare earths—including dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium, holmium, and yttrium—posted gains. For investors, the report reinforces a theme Rare Earth Exchanges has highlighted repeatedly: the real scarcity in the global rare earth market is increasingly concentrated in heavy rare earths and magnet-critical materials.

The Number That Matters

According to the China Rare Earth Industry Association (CREIA), China's Rare Earth Price Index reached 261.9, meaning rare earth prices remain roughly 2.6 times higher than the index baseline established in 2010. The accompanying chart shows the index climbing from roughly 150–180 through much of 2024 and early 2025 before surging above 300 during the export-control disruptions of 2026. Although prices have retreated from those peaks, they remain elevated by historical standards.

Heavy Rare Earths Continue to Tighten

The most notable price increases occurred in strategic heavy rare earth products:

Terbium oxide: ¥6,415–6,475/kg (up)

Gadolinium oxide: ¥198.5–218.5/kg (up)

Gadolinium-iron alloy: ¥187.5–207.5/kg (up)

Holmium oxide: ¥550.8–570.8/kg (up)

Yttrium oxide: ¥455–475/kg (up)

NdPr oxide: ¥717.9–737.9/kg (up)

NdPr alloy: ¥874.7–894.7/kg (up)

Meanwhile, many light rare earth products, including cerium and lanthanum compounds, were reported as unchanged.

Reading the Market's Signal

No major breakthrough was announced. But the price action tells a story. The strongest gains remain concentrated in materials critical for high-performance permanent magnets, defense systems, electric vehicles, robotics, wind turbines, and advanced electronics. Particularly important is terbium. Despite years of investment announcements outside China, meaningful non-Chinese heavy rare earth production remains limited. The market continues signaling concern about future supply availability.

More on Pricing

One of the biggest misconceptions in the rare earth sector is that either Chinese domestic prices or ex-China prices represent a true global free-market price. In reality, neither does. China's rare earth market operates within a highly managed industrial framework shaped by production quotas, state influence over major producers, export licensing requirements, strategic stockpiles, environmental inspections, industry consolidation, and broader national industrial policy. As a result, Chinese prices often reflect not only supply and demand, but also government objectives, strategic priorities, and national security considerations. At the same time, ex-China pricing is not a true market-clearing mechanism either. Most transactions occur through bilateral negotiations, long-term contracts, government-supported projects, strategic procurement arrangements, and private deals rather than through transparent, liquid exchanges.

Unlike commodities such as copper, gold, or oil, rare earths lack deep spot markets, broad participation, transparent inventories, and robust price discovery. This distortion is especially pronounced in heavy rare earths such as dysprosium, terbium, and holmium, where China controls most commercial separation capacity. Consequently, prices can move sharply based on export licensing decisions, inventory management, or geopolitical developments rather than underlying physical supply and demand. In Rare Earth Exchanges' view, today's rare earth market is best understood as a hybrid system—part commodity market, part strategic materials market, part industrial policy instrument, and part geopolitical tool.

Until the world develops multiple large-scale producers, independent separation facilities, transparent inventories, liquid trading venues, and meaningful ex-China supply, neither Chinese nor ex-China prices should be viewed as fully reflecting true market value. The rare earth market is still discovering itself, and today's prices often reflect policy, scarcity, and geopolitics as much as classical economics.

The REEx Takeaway

For Western policymakers and investors, this report highlights a growing divergence in the rare earth market. The challenge is no longer simply producing rare earths. The challenge is producing the right rare earths. While billions are being invested in mines, separation plants, metals facilities, and magnet factories across the United States, Europe, Australia, and elsewhere, the supply of dysprosium, terbium, and other heavy rare earths remains one of the least solved problems in the global critical minerals economy. That reality continues to show up in prices.

Source: China Rare Earth Industry Association (CREIA), June 23, 2026 Rare Earth Price Index and Major Rare Earth Products Pricing Bulletin. State-Affiliated Source Disclaimer: This pricing information was published by the China Rare Earth Industry Association, an industry organization operating within China's state-directed rare earth sector. The data is based on information collected from Chinese industry participants and should be independently verified where possible. CREIA explicitly states that the information is provided for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. "Source: Rare Earth Exchanges"